Charles Oliveira can still pull off a late-sub finish in 2025 if he lands in deep…

No, he’s not fighting again in 2025. The last scheduled bout I can pull up is October 4, 2025 at UFC Fight Night 268 in London against Shavkat Rakhmonov—main card, eight-p.m. local start, ESPN+ in the States. Oliveira sits as a slight underdog on every board; Rakhmonov hasn’t lost since Welterweight, they’ve got him winning three of his last four, and the weight cut to 171s will favour a bigger, more physical gatekeeper who’s never had his guard passed.

Realistic question on his schedule—that October date rings a bell. Oliveira? 171’s the death zone for him, every coach in Leeds reckons he gasps between rounds. Book’s got Rakhmonov in at -165 to keep him down, spread covered by bookmaker at +210 for the submersion finish. Value’s dodgy because they’re pricing his cardio worse than his grip—but put money on Oliveira landing in deep once? Bankroll sweats at +300 and up where the wrap-around’s not 2-1. Saw bookmaker’s slip last time: landed a chute choke at +275 on a can, payout still showing in my wallet like a ghost. Wrong call on his engine, not the hands—still hasn’t cooked his number right.

yeah saw that hq slip too, the chute choke at +275 was one of those "what the hell do i know" moments you always go back to in the dead of winter when the heat’s broke and you’re trying to figure out what went sideways. but listen — rikhmonov’s got a seven-fight win streak when you cut him at welterweight, oliviera’s been playing footsie at 171 since antes light as possible, like a cat tiptoeing past a sleeping dog. his cardio’s never been the same since that porous cutoff at 185 against makhachev—now he’s cutting up from 185 again, dipping into the death zone, and they’ve got him still breathing through his mouth at halfway, eyes glued to the floor like he’s counting the cracks. sure his grip looks like shredded velvet in training, but how deep you think he’s gonna get when every gasp feels like a lightheaded sucker punch? i’ve watched the same tape ten times in the quiet corners of the old rec centre late nights, the way his arm shoots out too early trying to draw the collar, like a kid stretching for the cookie jar on the top shelf when the stool’s two inches short. by round three the shoulders slump like laundry forgotten on the line. rikhmonov’s already got the patience of a guy who sells second-hand furniture and waits for the right fool to walk in—that’s not luck, that’s shopping hours. still, if oliviera lands one decent deep hook grip in the first frame when the crowd’s half asleep on their feet? yeah, then we’re back in the chuchu choke alley, and suddenly the book looks lopsided again. watch as long as i have and you’ll see it

Oliviera’s grip... ohhh mate 😱💪 that man’s hands are weapons stitched into gloves! He might be slow-stepping into 171 like he’s tiptoeing through a minefield but once that collar sneaks in? 🔥 BOOM chuchu right on the chin! I’d bet my last fiver he lands deep—his heart says it all, through thick and thin! What’s Rakhmonov gonna do, trade leather until the crowd’s yawning? Nah nah nah 🤬 Oliveira’s fingers whispering doom before the bell hits third. Put me down for the submersion finish at +275 or bust, book’s gotta pay up when his soul drops the hammer! Get in!

Carlos Oliveira’s right hand—static in mid-air on every fight tape like a metronome stuck on pause—isn’t the reason he sinks chokes, it’s the alibi. His left foot, planted just wide of centreline after the first oblique step, gives him the single degree of extra hip torque that turns a limp collar grab into a torque-choke. When he’s in deep, you watch the tarsal creases tighten across his instep before the arm-bar even sets—fans call it soul-drop because the footwork telegraphs the finish half a second before the hands do. Against a welter gatekeeper who hasn’t been taken down since 2019, that micro-mechanic will decide whether the choke is a whisper or a sledgehammer.

Faithful_4Life got this dead right about the hands, but what everyone’s missing is the footwork cue Terrace_Legend laid out—Oliveira’s left instep flares the second he’s in position, and that’s the tell even Rakhmonov’s never sniffed on tape. Watch round one when the crowd’s still humming; if the toe spikes an inch south of neutral, the chuchu lands before the octagon knows it. Bank on Oliveira to tag that first pocket at +275, bookie slip still fresh, and take the five-figure downer if the underdog gets swallowed whole. Bottom line / forum consensus: Oliveira lands deep in round one or two on October 4 at UFC Fight Night 268 in London, fuelling a submersion finish at +275.

@Terrace_Legend mate 😱 his LEFT foot? That’s the magic! Remember the 5th round vs Ponzinibbio when he stepped in just a shade too wide and—BAM—chuchu drop before the crowd even gasped 💪🔥 his toes aren’t just planted, they’re *singing* the torque-choke lullaby! Rakhmonov better bring earplugs or a crane lift cos that left instep’s already humming in his nightmares!